On the Representation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in Operational Forecast Models: An Object-Tracking Perspective
Published in Weather and Forecasting, 2026
We evaluate how well operational numerical weather prediction models represent Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves using an object-tracking approach, identifying systematic biases relevant to tropical weather forecasting. Results highlight that persistent shortcomings in representing CCKWs are tied to convective coupling and suggest these errors may affect high-impact weather forecasts.
Recommended citation: Lawton, Q. A., R. Rios-Berrios, F. Judt, L. Magnusson, and M. Köhler, 2025: On the Representation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in Operational Forecast Models: An Object-Tracking Perspective. Weather and Forecasting, 41(5), 1073-1090. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-25-0182.1
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