Quinton Lawton

Quinton Lawton

he/him

Assistant Professor, Dept. of Earth, Atmosphere & Environment, Northern Illinois University. Research into tropical meteorology and global weather prediction.

Publications

You can also find Dr. Lawton's articles on his Google Scholar profile.

Journal Articles

Atlantic tropical wave and cyclogenesis forecasting in the physical and new AI forecast systems at ECMWF

Published in Weather and Forecasting, 2026

Assesses the skill of ECMWF physical and AI-based forecast systems in predicting Atlantic tropical waves and tropical cyclogenesis, with implications for operational forecasting improvements.

Recommended citation: Majumdar, S. J., L. Magnusson, Q. A. Lawton, R. Emerton, S. Lang, M. Maier-Gerber, and D. S. Richardson, 2025: Atlantic tropical wave and cyclogenesis forecasting in the physical and new AI forecast systems at ECMWF. Weather and Forecasting, 41(6). 1181-1197. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-25-0200.1
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A Review of African Easterly Waves: Formation, Growth, Structure, and Evolution

Published in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2026

A comprehensive review of the current understanding of African Easterly Waves, covering their formation mechanisms, growth processes, structural characteristics, and lifecycle evolution.

Recommended citation: Núñez Ocasio, K. M., Q. A. Lawton, E. Bercos-Hickey, S. Bourdin, A. Brammer, and X. Feng, 2025: A Review of African Easterly Waves: Formation, Growth, Structure, and Evolution. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 83(6). 901-926. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-25-0175.1
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On the Representation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in Operational Forecast Models: An Object-Tracking Perspective

Published in Weather and Forecasting, 2026

Evaluates how well operational numerical weather prediction models represent Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves using an object-tracking approach, identifying systematic biases relevant to tropical weather forecasting.

Recommended citation: Lawton, Q. A., R. Rios-Berrios, F. Judt, L. Magnusson, and M. Köhler, 2025: On the Representation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in Operational Forecast Models: An Object-Tracking Perspective. Weather and Forecasting, 41(5), 1073-1090. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-25-0182.1
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On the Interannual Variability of African Easterly Waves and Its Relationship with El Niño – Southern Oscillation

Published in Journal of Climate, 2025

Investigates how ENSO modulates the interannual variability of African Easterly Wave activity, finding that La Niña conditions are associated with enhanced AEW activity with implications for Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Recommended citation: Lawton, Q. A., B. Weiser, and S. J. Majumdar, 2025: On the Interannual Variability of African Easterly Waves and Its Relationship with El Niño – Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 38(20), 5791–5808. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0113.1
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Synoptic Modulation of the West African Coastal Atmosphere and Mesoscale Convective Systems

Published in Monthly Weather Review, 2025

Characterizes how synoptic-scale tropical wave activity modulates the West African coastal atmosphere and the organization of mesoscale convective systems, drawing on observations from the NASA CPEX-CV campaign.

Recommended citation: Sakaeda, N., S.-N. Wu, R. Rios-Berrios, E. Martin, K. M. Núñez Ocasio, K. Bedka, M. Hollis, B. Lambrigtsen, Q. A. Lawton, A. Nehrir, M. Rajagopal, M. Schreier, and S. Wong, 2025: Synoptic Modulation of the West African Coastal Atmosphere and Mesoscale Convective Systems. Monthly Weather Review, 153(10), 1939–1957. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-24-0281.1
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Dust, Convection, Winds and Waves: The 2022 NASA CPEX-CV Campaign

Published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2024

Overview of the 2022 NASA Convective Processes Experiment – Cabo Verde (CPEX-CV) airborne field campaign, documenting observations of dust, convection, and tropical waves over the eastern Atlantic.

Recommended citation: Nowottnick, E. P., and Co-Authors, 2024: Dust, Convection, Winds and Waves: The 2022 NASA CPEX-CV Campaign. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105(11). https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0201.1
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The Representation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in Simulations with Modified Wave Amplitudes

Published in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2024

Uses MPAS-A simulations with modified CCKW amplitudes to explore how tropical wave activity influences the broader tropical circulation and downstream TC genesis.

Recommended citation: Lawton, Q. A., R. Rios-Berrios, S. J. Majumdar, R. Emerton, and L. Magnusson, 2024: The Representation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in Simulations with Modified Wave Amplitudes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16, e2023MS004187. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004187
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Moisture Dependence of an African Easterly Wave Within the West African Monsoon System

Published in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2024

Examines how moisture availability within the West African Monsoon system influences the structure, intensity, and evolution of individual African Easterly Wave events.

Recommended citation: Núñez Ocasio, K. M., C. A. Davis, Z. L. Moon, and Q. A. Lawton, 2024: Moisture Dependence of an African Easterly Wave Within the West African Monsoon System. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16, e2023MS004070. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004070
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Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis: Connections through Convection and Moisture

Published in Monthly Weather Review, 2023

Demonstrates direct links between Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves and tropical cyclone formation, showing how CCKWs enhance convection and moisture in environments favorable for TC genesis.

Recommended citation: Lawton, Q. A., and S. J. Majumdar, 2023: Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis: Connections through Convection and Moisture. Monthly Weather Review, 151(7), 1647–1666. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0005.1
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The Influence of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on African Easterly Waves in a Wave-Following Framework

Published in Monthly Weather Review, 2022

Investigates how Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves modulate African Easterly Wave structure and intensity using a novel wave-following Lagrangian framework. Introduces the QTrack African Easterly Wave tracker.

Recommended citation: Lawton, Q. A., S. J. Majumdar, K. Dotterer, C. Thorncroft, and C. J. Schreck, 2022: The Influence of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on African Easterly Waves in a Wave-Following Framework. Monthly Weather Review, 150(8), 2055–2072. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0321.1
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Tropical cyclones downscaled from simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

Published in Journal of Climate, 2021

Examines tropical cyclone activity in Last Glacial Maximum climate simulations using a downscaling approach, revealing how paleoclimate conditions modulate TC frequency and intensity.

Recommended citation: Lawton, Q. A., R. Korty, and R. Zamora, 2021: Tropical cyclones downscaled from simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum. Journal of Climate, 34(2), 659–674. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0409.1
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